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SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 10 05 22Copper climbs though demand outlook uncertain amid escalating restrictions in China CLICK FOR PDFMiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below LON:CMRS – Exploration sampling results from the Kambia-Kapedes project, CyprusTSE:FQM – $1.25bn Kansanshi expansion approvedLON:GGP – Exploration grant for the Rudall licenceLON:ROCK
SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 10 05 22
Copper climbs though demand outlook uncertain amid escalating restrictions in China
CLICK FOR PDF
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Caerus Mineral Resources PLC (LSE:CMRS) – Exploration sampling results from the Kambia-Kapedes project, Cyprus
First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FQM) – $1.25bn Kansanshi expansion approved
Greatland Gold PLC (AIM:GGP, OTC:GRLGF) – Exploration grant for the Rudall licence
Rockfire Resources PLC (LSE:ROCK) – Re-analysis of historic core from Molaoi zinc project detects germanium
Shanta Gold Limited (AIM:SHG, OTC:SAAGF) – Gold recovery expected to recover in 2022 following geological challenges in 2021
Versarien PLC (AIM:VRS, OTC:VRSRF)* – Deal with global sportswear brand Umbro
SP Angel mining team at 121 in Cape Town this week
Graphene / graphite purification – private financing
*SP Angel’s role is limited to making introductions and interested parties should be aware that investment in a private company can present certain risks not present in listed companies (e.g. limited or no liquidity and no rules compelling disclosure of information to investors). This offer is open to professional investors only and is not offered to retail investors.
Dow Jones Industrials -1.99% at 32,246
Nikkei 225 -0.58% at 26,167
HK Hang Seng -1.95% at 19,612
Shanghai Composite +1.06% at 3,036
Economics
Sri Lanka – Protestors torch leader’s homes as country essentially bankrupt
UK – Retail sales fall for the first time since Jan 2021 amid cost-of-living crisis
China – Record amount of infrastructure bond sales planned by end of June
Philippines – Ferdinand Marcos Jr wins by landslide victory in presidential election
US – Retail gasoline prices hit new record on supply bottlenecks
Currencies
US$1.0558/eur vs 1.0517/eur yesterday. Yen 130.36/$ vs 131.20/$. SAr 16.112/$ vs 16.136/$. $1.229/gbp vs $1.233/gbp. 0.696/aud vs 0.701aud. CNY 6.709/$ vs 6.724/$.
Commodity News
Copper prices edged higher on Tuesday following sell-off across base metals on Monday
Iron ore prices slump on signs of further distress in China’s property sector
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,861/oz vs US$1,870/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 106.1moz vs US$106.3moz yesterday
Platinum US$976/oz vs US$958/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,157/oz vs US$2,121/oz yesterday
Silver US$22.04/oz vs US$22.20/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$16,350/oz vs US$16,700/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 9,337/t vs US$9,248/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,757/t vs US$2,800/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 27,920/t vs US$29,520/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 3,655/t vs US$3,716/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,165/t vs US$2,210/t yesterday
Tin US$ 36,600/t vs US$38,480/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$105.6/bbl vs US$111.2/bbl yesterday
Natural Gas US$7.121/mmbtu vs US$8.157/mmbtu yesterday
Uranium UXC US$55.10/lb vs $55.35/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$127.4/t vs US$141.0/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$739.4/t vs US$745.3/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$245.0/t vs US$250.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$360.0/t vs US$360.0/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$465.0/t vs US$465.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$82,000/t vs US$82,000/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$130,379/t vs US$128,239/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$63,6669/t vs US$63,562/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$3,720/t vs US$3,720/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% $1,863/t vs US$1,888/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$338/t vs US$338/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$815/t vs US$815/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 10.4/lb vs US$10.6/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 41.75/kg vs US$42.75/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$370/t vs US$369/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$2.9/t vs US$95.3/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$1,220/t vs US$1,220/t
Battery News
Tesla woes continue at Shanghai plant
Anglo American hydrogen truck produces no CO2
Company News
Caerus Mineral Resources PLC (LSE:CMRS) 12.5p, Mkt Cap £8m – Exploration sampling results from the Kambia-Kapedes project, Cyprus
Conclusion: Encouraging early-stage partial sample results from the Kambia-Kapedes project show gold grades along 175m of strike length. Assays for other elements are awaited.
First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FQM) C$31.2, Mkt cap C$22bn – $1.25bn Kansanshi expansion approved
Conclusion: First Quantum’s investment in Zambia is the biggest single foreign direct investment in the country in a decade, and a meaningful display of confidence in the country’s mining sector. We expect to see more activity in Zambia in the coming years, from explorers to producers, given the highly prospective nature of the Zambian Copper Belt and the large structural deficit forecast in the copper market.
Greatland Gold PLC (AIM:GGP, OTC:GRLGF) 12.9p, Mkt Cap £527m – Exploration grant for the Rudall licence
Conclusion: We await further information on the significance of the Ramses anomaly and the wider Rudall licence area as exploration advances.
Rockfire Resources PLC (LSE:ROCK) 0.49p, Mkt Cap £5m – Re-analysis of historic core from Molaoi zinc project detects germanium
Shanta Gold Limited (AIM:SHG, OTC:SAAGF) 9.75p, Mkt Cap £102m – Gold recovery expected to recover in 2022 following geological challenges in 2021
Conclusion: Shanta Gold expects a recovery in gold production in 2022 following a 30% reduction in 2021 resulting from unexpected geological conditions. The new Singida mine is progressing with initial gold expected during Q1 2023.
Versarien PLC (AIM:VRS, OTC:VRSRF)* 18p, Mkt cap £35m – Deal with global sportswear brand Umbro
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Versarien
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver – BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel – Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt – LME
Oil Brent – ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore – NYMEX
Thermal Coal – Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal – SSY
RRE – Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite – Asian Metal
DISCLAIMER
This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.
This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.
This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.
This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.
Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.
Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.
SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).
SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049. The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP. SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.
MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.
A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).
SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%
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